Potential for small scale added value of RCM’s downscaled climate change signal   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alejandro Di Luca  Ramón de Elía  René Laprise 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):601-618

In recent decades, the need of future climate information at local scales have pushed the climate modelling community to perform increasingly higher resolution simulations and to develop alternative approaches to obtain fine-scale climatic information. In this article, various nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations have been used to try to identify regions across North America where high-resolution downscaling generates fine-scale details in the climate projection derived using the “delta method”. Two necessary conditions were identified for an RCM to produce added value (AV) over lower resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the fine-scale component of the climate change (CC) signal. First, the RCM-derived CC signal must contain some non-negligible fine-scale information—independently of the RCM ability to produce AV in the present climate. Second, the uncertainty related with the estimation of this fine-scale information should be relatively small compared with the information itself in order to suggest that RCMs are able to simulate robust fine-scale features in the CC signal. Clearly, considering necessary (but not sufficient) conditions means that we are studying the “potential” of RCMs to add value instead of the AV, which preempts and avoids any discussion of the actual skill and hence the need for hindcast comparisons. The analysis concentrates on the CC signal obtained from the seasonal-averaged temperature and precipitation fields and shows that the fine-scale variability of the CC signal is generally small compared to its large-scale component, suggesting that little AV can be expected for the time-averaged fields. For the temperature variable, the largest potential for fine-scale added value appears in coastal regions mainly related with differential warming in land and oceanic surfaces. Fine-scale features can account for nearly 60 % of the total CC signal in some coastal regions although for most regions the fine scale contributions to the total CC signal are of around ～5 %. For the precipitation variable, fine scales contribute to a change of generally less than 15 % of the seasonal-averaged precipitation in present climate with a continental North American average of ～5 % in both summer and winter seasons. In the case of precipitation, uncertainty due to sampling issues may further dilute the information present in the downscaled fine scales. These results suggest that users of RCM simulations for climate change studies in a delta method framework have little high-resolution information to gain from RCMs at least if they limit themselves to the study of first-order statistical moments. Other possible benefits arising from the use of RCMs—such as in the large scale of the downscaled fields– were not explored in this research.  相似文献   

Nonparametric analysis of high wind speed data     

Mario Francisco-Fernández  Alejandro Quintela-del-Río 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):429-441

In this paper, nonparametric curve estimation methods are applied to analyze time series of wind speeds, focusing on the extreme events exceeding a chosen threshold. Classical parametric statistical approaches in this context consist in fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the tail of the empirical cumulative distribution, using maximum likelihood or the method of the moments to estimate the parameters of this distribution. Additionally, confidence intervals are usually computed to assess the uncertainty of the estimates. Nonparametric methods to estimate directly some quantities of interest, such as the probability of exceedance, the quantiles or return levels, or the return periods, are proposed. Moreover, bootstrap techniques are used to develop pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for these functions. The proposed models are applied to wind speed data in the Gulf Coast of US, comparing the results with those using the GPD approach, by means of a split-sample test. Results show that nonparametric methods are competitive with respect to the standard GPD approximations. The study is completed generating synthetic data sets and comparing the behavior of the parametric and the nonparametric estimates in this framework.  相似文献   

Optical Spectroscopy of Comet C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR) at the Guillermo Harro Astrophysical Observatory in Mexico     

Churyumov  Klim I.  Luk'yanyk  Igor V.  Berezhnoi  Alexei A.  Chavushyan  Vahram H.  Sandoval  Lourdes S.  Palma  Alejandro A. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,90(1-4):361-368

We present a preliminary analysis of medium resolution optical spectra of comet C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR) obtained on 22 November 2001. Theemission lines of the molecules C₂, C₃, CN, NH₂,H₂O⁺ and presumably CO (Asundi and triplet bands) and C₂ ^-were identified in these spectra. By analysing the brightnessdistributions of the C₂, C₃, CN emission lines along theslit of the spectrograph we determined some physical parameters of theseneutrals, such as their lifetimes and expansion velocities inthe coma. The Franck–Condon factors for the CO Asundi bands and C₂ ^- bands were calculated using a Morse potential model.  相似文献   

Automatic seismic wave detection and autoregressive model method     

Tan Yi  F. Alejandro Nava 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(1):37-48

The problem of automatic detection of seismic waves by large telemetered seismic networks such as the Mexican Continental Aperture Seismic Network (RESMAC), is extended here to include determination of seismic first-arrival and S-phase-arrival times. A short general outline of the detection problem background and a small introduction to the autoregressive model (AR) concept are presented. Several automatic detection algorithms were implemented and compared with a newly developed autoregressive algorithm. Careful consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of each method determined that a mixed detection scheme is optimal and suitable for RESMAC. A few examples are shown that illustrate the relative performances of the methods tried here. The proposed detection scheme has the following characteristics: (a) First-arrival detection, based on a simple (average of squared input) characteristic function, and a trigger criterion that uses as a distortion measure the long-average-to-short-average ratio of the characteristic function, checked using a duration criterion; (b) use of two threshold values, one for triggering, and another for beginning the backward search for the phase arrival time; (c) use of the autoregressive model (AR) method, with the Itakura-Saito distortion measure, for S-phase detection, checked using both duration and amplitude criteria; and (d) characterization of the reliability of the determinations for their subsequent use in automatic location programs, alarms, etc. The automatic detection scheme has proved effective.  相似文献   

利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)     

AGUIRRE-SALADO Carlos Arturo  TREVIO-GARZA Eduardo Javier  AGUIRRE-CALDERóN Oscar Alberto  JIMéNEZ-PéREZ Javier  GONZáLEZ-TAGLE Marco Aurelio  VALDEZ-LAZALDE José René  MIRANDA-ARAGóN Liliana  AGUIRRE-SALADO Alejandro Iván 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(4):669-680

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).  相似文献   

An interdisciplinary approach to depict landscape change drivers: A case study of the Ticuiz agrarian community in Michoacan, Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Minerva Campos  Alejandro Velázquez  Ángel Guadalupe Priego-Santander 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):409-419

Landscape changes are driven by a combination of physical, ecological and socio-cultural factors. Hence, a large amount of information is necessary to monitor these changes and to develop effective strategies for management and conservation. For this, novel strategies for combining social and environmental data need to be developed. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the value of an innovative interdisciplinary approach to help in explaining landscape change. We integrated three main sources of information: biophysical landscape attributes, land-use/cover change analysis and social perceptions of land-use change, institutional and policy factors and environmental services. Multivariate statistical analysis was used to develop a weight for each variable described or quantified. Finally we identified proximate causes and underlying driving forces of land transformation in the study area. The study was undertaken in a typical community in Mexico.  相似文献   

Short-Period Fluctuations in Coronal Mass Ejection Activity during Solar Cycle 23     

Alejandro Lara  Andrea Borgazzi  Odim Jr. Mendes  Reinaldo R. Rosa  Margarete Oliveira Domingues 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):155-166

We have constructed a time series of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO during solar cycle 23. Using spectral analysis techniques (the maximum entropy method and wavelet analysis) we found short-period (< one year) semiperiodic activity. Among others, we found interesting periodicities at 193, 36, 28, and 25 days. We discuss the implications of such short-period activity in terms of the emergence and escape of magnetic flux from the convection zone, through the low solar atmosphere (where these periodicities have been found for numerous activity parameters), toward interplanetary space. This analysis shows that CMEs remove the magnetic flux in a quasiperiodic process in a way similar to that of magnetic flux emergence and other solar eruptive activity.  相似文献   

Interplay of S and As in Mekong Delta sediments during redox oscillations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Van T.H.Phan  Fabrizio Bardelli  Pierre Le Pape  Raoul-Marie Couture  Alejandro Fernandez-Martinez  Delphine Tisserand  Rizlan Bernier-Latmani  Laurent Charlet 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(5):1715-1729

The cumulative effects of periodic redox cycling on the mobility of As,Fe,and S from alluvial sediment to groundwater were investigated in bioreactor experiments.Two particular sediments from the alluvial floodplain of the Mekong Delta River were investigated:Matrix A(14 m deep)had a higher pyrite concentration than matrix B(7 m deep)sediments.Gypsum was present in matrix B but absent in matrix A.In the reactors,the sediment suspensions were supplemented with As(Ⅲ)and SO_4~(2-),and were subjected to three full-redox cycles entailing phases of nitrogen/CO_2,compressed air sparging,and cellobiose addition.Major differences in As concentration and speciation were observed upon redox cycling.Evidences support the fact that initial sediment composition is the main factor controlling arsenic release and its speciation during the redox cycles.Indeed,a high pyrite content associated with a low SO_4~(2-)content resulted in an increase in dissolved As concentrations,mainly in the form of As(Ⅲ),after anoxic half-cycles;whereas a decrease in As concentrations mainly in the form of As(Ⅴ),was instead observed after oxic half-cycles.In addition,oxic conditions were found to be responsible for pyrite and arsenian pyrite oxidation,increasing the As pool available for mobilization.The same processes seem to occur in sediment with the presence of gypsum,but,in this case,dissolved As were sequestered by biotic or abiotic redox reactions occurring in the Fe—S system,and by specific physico-chemical condition(e.g.pH).The contrasting results obtained for two sediments sampled from the same core show that many complexes and entangled factors are at work,and further refinement is needed to explain the spatial and temporal variability of As release to groundwater of the Mekong River Delta(Vietnam).  相似文献   

Analytical queries on semantic trajectories using graph databases     

Leticia I. Gmez  Bart Kuijpers  Alejandro A. Vaisman 《Transactions in GIS》2019,23(5):1078-1101

This article studies the analysis of moving object data collected by location‐aware devices, such as GPS, using graph databases. Such raw trajectories can be transformed into so‐called semantic trajectories, which are sequences of stops that occur at “places of interest.” Trajectory data analysis can be enriched if spatial and non‐spatial contextual data associated with the moving objects are taken into account, and aggregation of trajectory data can reveal hidden patterns within such data. When trajectory data are stored in relational databases, there is an “impedance mismatch” between the representation and storage models. Graphs in which the nodes and edges are annotated with properties are gaining increasing interest to model a variety of networks. Therefore, this article proposes the use of graph databases (Neo4j in this case) to represent and store trajectory data, which can thus be analyzed at different aggregation levels using graph query languages (Cypher, for Neo4j). Through a real‐world public data case study, the article shows that trajectory queries are expressed more naturally on the graph‐based representation than over the relational alternative, and perform better in many typical cases.  相似文献   

Seismic Characteristics of the Vulcanian Explosions from the 2003–2005 Eruption at Colima Volcano,Mexico     

Francisco Javier Núñez-Cornú  Juan Manuel Espíndola  Fidencio Alejandro Nava Pichardo  Carlos Suárez-Plascencia 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(10-11):3513-3524

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